According to the Coatings Purchasing Network, at the beginning of the Asian market on June 3, the price of Brent crude oil rose above the US$40 per barrel mark, to US$40.37 per barrel, an increase of 2.02%, the first time since the price war broke out in early March. After the US WTI crude oil futures were unwilling to be reluctant, the intraday increase expanded to 2%, and is now reported at 37.56 US dollars per barrel.
(Source: Global Forex Network)
The crude oil price increase is directly related to the crude oil production reduction plan. It is reported that OPEC and other oil-producing countries including Russia will announce the extension of the current crude oil production reduction plan to July or August at a video conference this Thursday. This pushed oil prices up sharply before the meeting. On the 2nd, US crude oil futures and Brent crude oil futures both rose more than 3%, which was close to a three-week high. Following this, the price of chemical raw materials has risen sharply. There is a widespread rumor that the stock will be out of stock, and it will even need to be auctioned to obtain it. It can be said that the late "golden three silver four" hot season is ushered in.
Ethylene oxide: prices are soaring, auction mode goes online
In early June, the price of ethylene oxide soared Ｆrom 5,800 yuan/ton to 7,000 yuan/ton, an increase of more than 20%. Recently, some ethylene oxide products in Northeast China were auctioned in a certain chemical group, and the high price of 8,700 yuan/ton was auctioned, which made a group of chemical workers deeply unbelievable.
According to the Coatings Purchasing Network, the price increase trend in May continued in early June. According to industry analysts, the main reason for this increase is that the raw material ethylene has stopped falling and rising under the favorable support of the sharp rebound of international crude oil. In terms of installations, the maintenance equipment in North China is scheduled to restart in early July, and the equipment in East China is scheduled to be overhauled Ｆrom July to August. The tight supply situation is still difficult to alleviate in the short term. Regional installations are parked for maintenance and on-site resources are tight. The recent bullish atmosphere for ethylene oxide is strong, and prices may continue to rise.
Bisphenol A: price rises by RMB 1,400/ton, strong support Ｆrom upstream and downstream
The price of bisphenol A rose sharply last week. As of last Friday (29th), the market negotiated price is around 10800-11000 yuan/ton, which is an increase of nearly 1,400 yuan/ton Ｆrom 9400-9500 yuan/ton on May 8.
Epoxy resin: an increase of nearly 2,000 yuan/ton, which is strongly driven by downstream demand
The market price remained strong. As of last Friday (29th), the negotiated price of liquid resin in East China was 19200-20000 yuan/ton, and the negotiated price of solid epoxy resin was 14000-14500 yuan/ton (delivered upon acceptance). The raw material bisphenol A The price increase is obvious, and the cost support is strong.
The quotations of some domestic E51 liquid epoxy resins are as follows:
Kunshan Nanya quoted at RMB 20,500/ton on June 1, which is RMB 1,700/ton higher than the price of RMB 18,800/ton on May 11.
Changchun Chemical's price was 19,500 yuan/ton on June 1, which was an increase of 900 yuan/ton Ｆrom the price of 18,600 yuan/ton on May 11.
Nantong Xingchen's price was 19,700 yuan/ton on June 1, which was 1,200 yuan/ton higher than the price on May 11 of 18,500 yuan/ton.
Baling Petrochemical quoted a price of RMB 19,600/ton on June 1, which is RMB 1,200/ton higher than the price of RMB 18,400/ton on May 11.
Jiangsu Sanmu quoted a price of 19,400 yuan/ton on June 1st, an increase of 900 yuan/ton Ｆrom the 18,500 yuan/ton price on May 11.
PTA: Increased by more than 10%, processing fees climbed at a high level
PTA quoted at 3754 yuan/ton on June 2, which was an increase of 394 yuan/ton Ｆrom the price of 3360 yuan/ton on May 13, or 11.73%.
Recently, the overall starting load of PTA has been reduced to around 78.6% during the concentrated maintenance period. In June, the equipment involved in overhaul was still close to 10 million tons, and the PTA supply and demand situation changed Ｆrom a continuous accumulation of warehouses to a slight de-stocking state. On the other hand, the PTA processing fee has risen at a high level, and it is not ruled out that some devices may be delayed in maintenance.
TGIC: Up 43% Ｆrom the lowest value in the year, and the supply of products exceeds supply
TGIC has seen a sharp rise recently. The quotation at the beginning of June was 46,000 yuan/ton, an increase of 9,500 yuan/ton or 26.03% Ｆrom the 36,500 yuan/ton TGIC reference price before May Day. According to public data, the lowest price of TGIC this year is 32,000 yuan/ton, and the recent price has increased by 14,000 yuan/ton Ｆrom the lowest value of the year, an increase of 43%.
On the one hand, a TGIC manufacturer ceased production (Yangzhou Suntory Chemical Co., Ltd.), and Puyang Hongda Shengdao New Materials Co., Ltd. was under pressure Ｆrom environmental protection and security inspections, and the production of TGIC was not stable. Based on this, the amount of available TGIC circulating on the market has been slightly reduced, and rumors of out of stock continue to spread in the market. On the other hand, due to the accelerated spread of the epidemic abroad, manufacturers are worried about future imports and exports, so they have guaranteed export orders and exported a large number of them. According to TGIC manufacturers, the export volume of TGIC has increased sharply recently, and the price increase has attracted many buyers to stock up. After all, most people still have the mentality of "buying up but not buying down", so they "broken the string" and the market is in short supply. (It is understood that after 15 days of ordering).
Acetone: The cumulative increase has exceeded 150%, and the supply will decrease
On June 2, the market price of acetone in East China was 9,300 yuan/ton, an increase of 1,020 yuan/ton Ｆrom 8,280 yuan/ton on May 14, an increase of 12.32%. Affected by multiple factors, the domestic acetone market price has risen Ｆrom less than 4,000 yuan/ton to more than 9,000 yuan/ton in the past two months, and the cumulative increase has exceeded 150%. After the beginning of spring in previous years, acetone manufacturers will arrange maintenance. The overhaul period is postponed this year. According to market news, in June, the acetone plant will enter a shutdown period for overhaul, and the future supply of acetone will be very small.
Ethylene: driven by crude oil, bottomed out and rebounded, with an increase of over 70%
ranked first in the chemical ups and downs list in May, Ｆrom the May 1 offer of US$353.75/ton to the June 2 offer of US$610.5/ton, an increase of 256.75 yuan/ton, an increase of 72.58%. The main reason for the increase in ethylene was the rise in crude oil. In addition, ethylene had fallen to a trough following the changes in crude oil.
Epichlorohydrin: an increase of 1,400 yuan/ton, the industry operating rate is only 51%
On June 3, Jinan Aochen Chemical's price was 11,000 yuan/ton, an increase of 1,400 yuan/ton Ｆrom 9,600 yuan/ton on May 6, an increase of 14.58%. At present, the overall operating rate of the industry is about 51%, and the annual output is about 700,000 tons. The main factory Shandong Haili has failed to restart its 4 units with a total capacity of 320,000 tons/year since October 2018 due to environmental protection issues. In addition, after the “March 21” major explosion accident in 2019, subsidiary Jiangsu Haixing The 130,000-ton/year installation of the company has also been shut down so far, and other manufacturers have also under-operated due to environmental protection and other reasons. The new domestic epichlorohydrin production capacity cannot make up for the lost capacity of the shutdown. The shortage of supply in the entire industry continues to this day.
In addition, relying on the boost of crude oil prices, there are still many raw materials that have risen in recent months.
Trichloromethane: The latest price on June 2 was 2300 yuan/ton, which was up 64.29% in the last 30 days.
MTBE: The latest price on June 2 was 3,633.33 yuan/ton, an increase of 13.54% in the last 30 days.
Acetic anhydride: The latest price on June 2 was 6175.00 yuan/ton, an increase of 12.79% in the last 30 days.
PA6: The latest price on June 2 was 11666.67 yuan/ton, an increase of 12.54% in the last 30 days.
Suspension of production and maintenance began one after another, and stability may be missed
Crude oil skyrocketed by 70% in May, which is a strong support Ｆrom the cost side and contributed to boosting the overall upward movement of the chemical industry. Analysts revealed that OPEC will continue to cut production and will continue to increase international crude oil prices. In addition, since the end of May, many chemical raw material companies such as epoxy, cyclochlorine, TDI, MDI, etc. have begun to shut down production for maintenance every year, which lasts Ｆrom a few days to dozens of days, which will also have an impact on the market. In the second half of the year, the industry's parking maintenance plan is more concentrated, the market supply will be further reduced, and the price may reach a new high.
In communication with many coatings and chemical companies, the Coatings Purchasing Network found that during the epidemic, many company leaders said that this year, they will focus on "seeking stability", wait and see less impulsively, and make decisions when they are optimistic. This can also explain why the price cuts do not stock up, but the price hikes only stock up, and there are not many stocks. Although caution can preserve the capital chain, in contrast, the control of the situation is not so flexible and in place. Don’t buy if the price is reduced, don’t buy if the price is raised, and if you don’t buy the next step, you can only wait until the stock is out of stock.
(Part of the content in this article comes Ｆrom epoxy resins and applications, business companies, etc., compiled and published by the coating procurement network, please indicate the source for reprinting, if you do not have permission or do not indicate the source, legal responsibility will be pursued.)
